A third of FMCG sales and half of motorcycle sales come from the hinterlands
In another forecast for August, IMD Director General Mrutunjay Mohapatra said monsoon is also likely to be normal in the month.
With the cooling down of heatwaves as the monsoon spreads across the country, power demand has fallen by 12.5 per cent from the start of this month till Monday. Peak power demand of the country had touched a record of 210 Gw last week, mostly due to rising temperatures and opening up of the economy. Compared with the beginning of this month, almost all states have seen a fall in power demand. Punjab, however, is an exception where the power demand on Monday was 17 per cent higher than on June 1.
Officials in the weather department said the monsoon is expected to be below normal because of the El-Nino effect.
Fast moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies are expected to see muted topline growth, with uneven spread of the monsoon impacting demand. Rural demand recovery, too, remains elusive in the July-September quarter. Brokerages expect volumes to remain steady in the quarter on a sequential basis.
As the month ended with 33 per cent deficiency, which translates to around 67 per cent of the Long Period Average, several parts of the country have been witnessing drought-like situation.
After churning across the Arabian Sea for more than 10 days, Biparjoy made landfall near Jakhau Port in Gujarat on Thursday.
Monsoon normally starts withdrawing beginning September 1 from west Rajasthan.
The southwest monsoon is likely to arrive over Kerala on May 31, a day earlier than its normal onset date, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.
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An El Nino is a temporary change in the climate of the Pacific Ocean, in the region around the equator.
Pulses are most vulnerable to pests and diseases if the monsoon remains patchy for the rest of the season.
A number of significant linkages between rainfall and economic outcomes have policy implications.
Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Odisha and Gujarat, have been left out, despite a strong start to the monsoon in June
Northern India experienced a slide in temperatures across the region even as the country's south welcomed the south-west monsoon which set in over Kerala and Lakshwadeep on Saturday.
Heavy rains across India have led to widespread flooding, causing damage to infrastructure, displacement of residents, and disruption of normal life. Rescue efforts are underway in affected areas.
Usually, the annual monsoon forecast is released around mid-April.
The southwest monsoon over the country is likely to be normal in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Thursday in its forecast for the month.
Kerala has been receiving rainfall since Saturday and 10 out of the 14 weather monitoring stations in the state have received more than 2.5 mm rains.
The rains after arriving over Kerala will quickly cover Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, but then might slacken a bit, which could delay its arrival over Northwest India.
A below-normal monsoon can bring down India's GDP growth by 0.50-0.75 per cent this financial year, forcing the Reserve Bank to delay rate cuts to 2015, Bank of America-Merrill Lynch (BofA-ML) said.
Retail inflation declined to a three-month low of 5.1 per cent in January, mainly due to subdued prices of vegetables, fruits and other food items, according to government data released on Monday. The fall indicates that retail inflation is inching towards the Reserve Bank's comfort level of 4 per cent. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based inflation was on the rise for two straight months after touching a trough of 4.9 per cent in October 2023. In December, it stood at 5.69 per cent.
There are chances of taps running dry and prices of fruits and vegetables spiking.
As many as 12 flights were diverted at the Delhi airport between 3 pm and 4 pm due to adverse weather conditions, an official said.
Monsoon will be insufficient this year.
With different agencies showing divergent predictions regarding the southwest monsoon, the central government and states are gearing up to face adversity with various line ministries reportedly being directed to undertake mock drills and hold preparatory meetings. Around 56 per cent of the net cultivable area of the country is rain-fed, accounting for 44 per cent of foodgrain production. The June-September rains contribute around 73 per cent of the annual precipitation.
There have been good crops in years of poor rain and huge variations in years which have had similar rain.
Retail inflation declined to a five-year low of 3.54 per cent in July mainly on account of subdued prices of food items, and base effect, according to official data released on Monday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was 5.08 per cent in June 2024 and 7.44 per cent in July 2023.
While the IMD had forecast a 'normal' monsoon for the entire season, Skymet stated that rain this year would be 'below normal', report Sanjeeb Mukherjee and Sahil Makkar.
Sales of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) witnessed significant recovery in September after enduring a double-digit decline in August, according to data furnished by Bizom. Kirana stores in rural areas stocked up in preparation for the festival season, which began in September. This, combined with rainfall reaching 113 per cent of the long-perid average for the month, contributed to a boost in sales.
The southwest monsoon is set to make its exit in style, bringing rains to the parched parts of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar, as weather forecasters have picked up signs of formation of a cyclonic circulation over Bay of Bengal. Addressing a press conference in New Delhi, India Meteorological Department (IMD) director general Mrutyunjay Mohapatra on Thursday junked last week's forecast of early withdrawal of southwest monsoon and announced the extended stay of the seasonal showers. "Even though we expected early withdrawal of the southwest monsoon, a cyclonic circulation over west-central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal will shift the monsoon trough southwards around September 7.
By June 14, the monsoon should have reached central India. But this year it hasn't even covered Karnataka properly or entered the Northeast.
The Reserve Bank on Wednesday projected inflation to come down below the upper threshold level of 6 per cent by March quarter of the current fiscal. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said the central bank will keep 'Arjuna's eye' (focus) on the evolving inflation dynamics and will remain 'nimble and flexible' to deal with the price situation. Global commodity prices, including crude oil, have undergone some downward correction, but uncertainty continues to surround the near-term outlook in view of the prolonging geo-political hostilities. Moreover, the resurgence in domestic services sector activity could also lead to price increases, especially as firms pass on input costs.
Morgan Stanley sees a downside risk o 30-60 bps
El Nino is often associated with below average warmer, dry weather across Asia Pacific region.
According to latest data, crops have been sown in around 72.13 million hectares, which is 8.90 per cent less than the same period last year.
Also, the monsoon this year may end up being the driest since 2015, which recorded a rainfall deficit of 13 per cent, they said.
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